Tariffs are definitely a risk to the short-term price action and long-term if they stay around. But, given the incentives on both sides the tariffs are likely not to last long. The valuation + business resiliency should help though
That was when the government clawed back the COVID payment boosts and everyone overreacted. You can check out Ian's Insider Corner for a (free) overview of what happened there
Nice one Brett, enjoying going over your thesis in detail.
Just something in your key point "The contract can be renewed for another 50 years", vs wording in the annual report.
From my reading of the wording, the possible 50 year extension from 2048 would be an aggregate between all airports that OMAB operates, rather than just extending them all for 50 years. Ie, the 50 years would split between each airport the group operates.
Obviously this isn't a huge deal as the virtually guaranteed monopoly until 2048 seems already enough to provide adequate returns.
Love the thesis and have already started building a position.
Great episode, I’m thinking about this one. Any concerns with tariffs?
Tariffs are definitely a risk to the short-term price action and long-term if they stay around. But, given the incentives on both sides the tariffs are likely not to last long. The valuation + business resiliency should help though
Thanks for the insightful write-up. Very helpful.
Can you explain what happened in October of 2023 when the stock lost 50% of its value? thank you.
That was when the government clawed back the COVID payment boosts and everyone overreacted. You can check out Ian's Insider Corner for a (free) overview of what happened there
Nice one Brett, enjoying going over your thesis in detail.
Just something in your key point "The contract can be renewed for another 50 years", vs wording in the annual report.
From my reading of the wording, the possible 50 year extension from 2048 would be an aggregate between all airports that OMAB operates, rather than just extending them all for 50 years. Ie, the 50 years would split between each airport the group operates.
Obviously this isn't a huge deal as the virtually guaranteed monopoly until 2048 seems already enough to provide adequate returns.
Love the thesis and have already started building a position.